The Future of Normative Power Europe: Scenarios for the Transformation of the EU’s International Identity

Abstract

The European Union, described by numerous scholars as a normative power, has traditionally relied on multilateral dialogue and problem‑solving, as well as on strengthening and promoting international law and institutions. It faces an existential threat today, as the rules‑based international order is crumbling; its traditional reliance on normative power is insufficient in the face of both internal and external challenges such as migration, wars, populism, and opportunistic politics, which threaten its legitimacy, international agency, and even existence. As such, its international identity necessarily needs to evolve. This article possible trajectories of such evolution. Three scenarios for the future of the European Union are outlined and thoroughly analysed, describing prerequisites and consequences of their unfolding: the Hybrid Model, in which the EU evolves, retains its normative power, but adopts elements of hard power; the Zombie European Union scenario, which suggests that, through the rise of Eurosceptic forces and the lack of political will among pro‑EU politicians, the EU will implode and fade into obscurity; and the Coalition of the Willing, which describes a future where a few motivated Member States establish structures parallel to the European Union and band together to tackle defence issues.